S&OP经典书籍连载:企业销售与运营计划(25)【第五章:S&OP评审会议(4)-需求与供应评审】

Janis Novak, the controller, raises her hand. “When demand and supply are decoupled, don’t you increase the risk of higher inventories?” she asks. “That can occur,” Nolan replies, “if inventory is not managed.” He explains that sales and operations planning is a process to make sure that inventory is managed. He also asks the class to consider another risk. If demand and supply are not decoupled, companies risk higher manufacturing costs, higher material costs, and poor customer service. Sales and operations planning provides the means to keep inventory, costs, and service under control during the natural, ongoing changes in demand that occur in most businesses.

珍妮丝,举起手。“当需求和供给只考虑一个变量,你不是增加了高库存的风险?“她问。“这可能发生,”诺兰回答说,“如果库存管理不善。”他说销售与运作规划是一个过程,确保库存管理成功。他还问班上另一个考虑的风险。如果需求和供应的没有去耦,公司冒着较高的制造成本的风险,更高的材料成本,和糟糕的客户服务的风险。销售与运作规划提供了手段保持库存,成本,和服务的控制下,在自然的,持续的在大多数企业的需求发生的变化。能应对变化制造企业的供应方面的成本变化的有限资金实力

“How are inventory and customer lead-time targets established in sales and operations planning?” Susan asks. “Good question,” Nolan replies, “but I would like to defer answering it for now. We will spend considerable time on this issue during the two-day detailed class as well as during the implementation. For now, let me give you my quick one-word answer: carefully.” Seeing that Susan is not entirely satisfied, Nolan adds that some of the key considerations include:

“库存和客户的交货时间目标确定,在销售运营计划下?“苏珊问。“问得好,”诺兰回答说,“但我想推迟回答它 我们会花相当多的时间在这个问题上为期两天的详细过程类以及在实施。现在,让我给你我的快一个词来回答:小心。”,苏珊表示不满意,诺兰补充说,一些关键的考虑的因素包括:

■ What is necessary to meet customer expectations

什么是要满足客户的期望的必要条件

■ What is necessary to be better than the competition

什么是比竞争对手更好的必要条件

■ The variability and accuracy of the forecast

变化和预测的准确性

■ How quickly the supply side of the business can respond to change

业务供应端能有多快的速度响应变化

■ The cost of making change in the supply side of the business

业务供应端制造变化的成本

■ The financial strength of the company

公司的财务能力

■ The current business situation

目前的商业形式

“If you take these, plus other considerations, into account with a large dose of common sense, you will come up with a starting point for the targets,” Nolan says. “The company should then commit to continuously improve upon these targets over time.”

“如果你考虑了这些,再加上其他方面的考虑,用大量的常识,你将来到出发点,” 诺兰说。“公司将致力于不断改善这些目标每一段时间。”

“Does that imply you may have different targets for different product lines?” Susan asks. “Yes, it does,” Nolan answers. He explains that one practice employed by many companies is to use what is sometimes called a “peanut butter” approach, where one standard is used for all product lines. This practice usually results in two conditions that put the company at either a financial disadvantage or a service disadvantage. Poor utilization of inventory can be the result, or delivery lead times do not match market requirements on different product lines.

“这意味着你可能对不同的产品线,不同的目标?“ 苏珊问。“是的,是这样,”诺兰回答。他解释说,一个实践被很多公司使用的,就是所谓的“花生酱”的方法, 一个标准用于所有产品线。这种做法的结果通常导致两个结果,或者把公司置于一个财务不利的境地,或者服务跟不上。结果是库存利用少,或交货时间满足不了不同产品线的市场需求。

“Why does this peanut butter approach occur?” Nolan asks. “It is either a result of management by accident, meaning that management does not make a decision with regard to individualized targets, or it is the direct result of misguided senior management, which often occurs through what we like to call management by edict. Neither one of the two methods is truly professional management in my opinion.”

“为什么这花生酱的方法真的发生?“诺兰问。“这是一个管理的意外结果,即管理的过程中采用了个性化目标决策,或是被误导的直接结果,这通常发生在我们所称的管理通过法令。这两种方法都不是真正的专业管理。

Susan turns toward Mark and looks him straight in the eye. “Did you hear that, Mark?” she asks. “Guilty as charged,” Mark acknowledges. “But that is why Ross and Nolan are here. I want them to help us change some of our less-than-effective and inefficient practices, including my own.”

苏珊转向马克,看起来他眼睛直。你听见了吗,马克?“她问。“我有错,”马克承认。“但这是为什么罗斯和诺兰在这里。我希望他们能够帮助我们改变我们的一些低效和无效的实践,包括我自己。”

Sam raises his hand. “Nolan, the supply side of the business has made commitments to shorten its cycle times and reduce its costs. Would the results of these efforts normally be reviewed in a supply review?” Ray Guy, the final assembly manager, squirms in his seat. Reduced cycle times have not been achieved, and he is especially chagrined that someone on the sales side of the business is pointing out this deficiency.

山姆举起手。“诺兰,企业的供应端方面作出承诺缩短周期和降低成本。这些工作的结果通常是在一个供应回顾检讨?“ 雷,组装的经理,在他的座位上挪动。缩短周期时间的目标并没有实现,他特别失望,销售方面的业务指出这一不足。

Nolan ignores Ray’s discomfort. He explains that the supply review provides an excellent forum to review the status of supply-oriented activities, such as cycle time reduction and cost reductions. The executive in charge of the supply review should be monitoring the progress of these activities at least monthly anyway. Some companies have introduced a performance measurement that addresses cycle time reductions.

诺兰忽略了雷的不适。他解释说,供应评审提供了一个优秀的论坛来评审供应为导向的活动状况,如周期和成本的降低。供应评审执行要至少每月一次追踪这些活动。一些公司已推出一种绩效测量的方法,使周期时间减少。

Nolan searches through the presentation program until he finds the slide he wants (Figure 23). “This is a measure of velocity, often expressed as a velocity ratio,” he says, pointing to the graphic. He explains that the objective of this measurement is to make visible how well nonvalue-added time is minimized in a process cycle. This measurement can be used to measure process cycles in all areas of a company, not just the supply organization. For example, it is useful for measuring order-entry processing time and invoicing processing time, as well as any other processes. Companies that utilize a lean or agile methodology consider velocity ratio a key measure of progress and success.

诺兰搜索演示程序,直到他发现(图23)。“这是一个速度的衡量,常作为一种速度表示比,”他说,指着图形。他解释说,这种测量方法的目的是使过程可视:那些无价值的时间最小化在流程循环中。这种测量方法可以用来测量公司全地区的过程周期,不只是供应组织。例如,它在测量订单处理和发票处理的时间时非常有用。公司采用精益或敏捷方法的认为速度比是一个成功的关键措施。

Ray Guy wants to shift the focus from supply issues to demand issues. He raises his hand. “I have a question regarding the process. How is the updated demand forecast communicated to the supply side of the business?” “I meant to mention communication when I discussed the demand review process,” Nolan replies. “There are two aspects that must be considered. One is the quality of communication; the other is the mechanics, or tools, used to communicate.”

雷想要把重点从供应问题转移到需求问题。他举起手。“我有一个关于进程的问题。如何将更新的需求预测与企业的供给相联系?“ “我的意思是说,当我讨论需求评审过程的沟通时,” 诺兰回答说。“有两个方面,必须考虑。一个是沟通的质量;二是用沟通的技巧和技术工具。”

He explains that it is assumed that the demand review meeting will be attended by key marketing and sales management people as well as invited guests. These invited guests may include someone representing the product development or engineering function, finance, and the supply function. Usually, the supply planner represents the supply side of the business.

他解释说,它是假定需求评审会议会有关键的营销和销售管理人员以及其他被邀请的人参加。这些被邀请的人包括代表产品开发或工程的部们,财务,和供应部分。通常,供应计划员代表业务的供应方面。

The supply representative does not attempt to influence the demand decisions in this meeting. The supply representative’s role is to observe and hear the conversation regarding the updated plan, in particular changes to the demand request for product. This approach facilitates efficiency and understanding. The supply side does not have to wait for an official memo or e-mail to begin its analysis of how it will support the changes to the demand plan.

在这个会议上供应代表不能影响需求的决定。供应代表的任务是观察和记录关于更新的计划,特别是产品需求的变化。这种方法有利于效率和理解。供应方不需等待官方的备忘录或电子邮件就可以开始分析它将如何支持需求计划的变化。

The mechanics of communicating the demand plan depends on the availability of communications tools. The demand plan, or request for product, ideally is communicated via a database that is accessible by the supply side of the business. This database may be part of a communication and presentation tool specifically designed for sales and operations planning. It may be part of a forecasting software tool. It may be part of the enterprise resource planning system. It may also be as simple as a spreadsheet file.

沟通需求方案的技术取决于沟通工具的可用性。需求计划,或产品需求,最理想的是通过企业供应链的数据库进行访问。该数据库可能是一个沟通的工具,为销售和运营规划制作的。它可能是一个预测软件的一部分。它可能是企业资源规划系统的一部分。它也可能作为一个电子表格文件一样简单。

Determining the tool that will be used is part of the detailed process design. Tools for sales and operations planning have been largely ignored by enterprise resource planning software suppliers. Some of the information needed to support sales and operations planning should be available in Universal Products’ systems, but the reporting and presentation tools will need to be developed.

确定将要使用的工具是设计的详细过程的一部分。销售和运营规划的工具,已经在很大程度被企业资源规划软件供应商ERP厂商忽视了。一些信息需要支持销售与运作规划的应在通用产品的系统是可用的,但报告和演示工具将需要开发。

Jim Simpson, the manufacturing director, raises his hand. “In the discussion about the supply review, you showed us a sample of performance measurements. Will performance measurements be reviewed during the demand review, too?” “Yes, they will,” Nolan replies. He explains that the basic practice for all subprocesses is to:

吉姆,生产总监,举手。“关于供应评审的讨论,你给了我们一个绩效评估的范例。需求评审,你会不会也给我们一个范例来做绩效评估?”“是的,他们会的,”诺兰回答说。他解释说,所有的基本实践的子过程是:

■ Review performance

评审绩效表现

■ Discuss known changes

讨论已知变化

■ Review the assumptions

评审假设性问题

■ Review resource utilization (on both the demand and supply side)

评审资源利用(需求和供应双方)

■ Determine any desired or recommended changes to action plans and resource

Changes

确定所需的任何或建议修改行动计划和资源的变化

■ Conduct both a qualitative and quantitative review and update of the plan

进行定性和定量的计划的回顾和更新

“The sales and operations planning process should be focused on the future,” Nolan says, “but it should be pointed out that the past often influences the future.” He tells the group that performance measurements increase the accountability to achieve the plan. Each person is responsible and accountable to do what he or she said they were going to do.

“销售与运营规划过程中应关注的是未来,” 诺兰说,“但应该指出的是,过去常常影响未来。” 他告诉小组,绩效评估,加大实现计划的责任追究。每个人都有责任和义务去做他或她说他们要做的。

Performance measurements have been found to fundamentally improve performance.Measurements of past performance provide a statistical basis for confidence or concern. If there has been high variability in performance in the past, it is only reasonable to expect high variability in performance in the future unless the cause of the variability is understood and corrected. nderstanding past performance should have a significant influence on executive decision making.

绩效评估已经发现,它能从根本上提高绩效。过去的绩效评估为信心提供了数据基础。如果有在曾经有过绩效较高的变化,那么位于未来的绩效同样被寄予较高的期望,除非导致这种变化的原因被理解并被修正。了解过去的表现对最执行决策的有较大的影响。

“Do the demand review and supply review address the financial impact to changes in the plans?” Janis Novak asks. “Yes,” Nolan replies. “On the demand side, two views of the plan are reviewed. There is a review of volume changes in whatever unit of measure is meaningful to both the demand and the supply side of the business. There is also a review of pricing assumptions, which enables calculation of projected revenue over the planning.” “On the supply side,” he continues, “the impact of changes to the plan on anticipated costs is used to calculate the projection of cost of goods sold as well as gross margin by product line.”

“你的需求和供应评审会导致财务计划的变化吗?“珍妮丝问。“是的,”诺兰回答说。“在需求方面,对该计划的两种观点进行了综述。有任何数量的变化对需求和商业供应方面都有意义。还有的定价假设的审查,使预计收入在规划时可以得到计算。” 在供应方面,”他继续说,“ 对于计划变化的预期成本的影响是,用来计算预测产品销售成本和产品线毛利。”

Nolan also notes that, like the demand review, invited guests attend the supply review meeting. Those invited guests typically include representatives from finance, product development or engineering, and the demand function. The individual from the demand side would most often be the demand planner.

诺兰指出,像需求评审,邀请客人参加供应评审会议。那些被邀请的客人通常包括来自财务,产品开发和工程,和需求部分。被邀请的个人通常是需求计划员。

Peter Newfeld, the product development/engineering director, shifts uncomfortably in his chair. “Since it seems so many of the same people attend the product review, demand review, and supply review meetings, why can’t there simply be one meeting? Wouldn’t that be more efficient?” Nolan explains that many companies have tried this approach, but the end results have been disappointing. While a single meeting may be better than no communication at all, the purpose of the reviews is diluted. “Remember,” Nolan says, “the purpose of the subprocess reviews is not

just to communicate. The primary purpose is to serve as functional management meetings.”

皮特,产品开发/工程总监,“由于参加产品评审,需求评审,供应评审会议的人都类似,为什么不能简单的是一个会议?那是不是更有效?“诺兰解释说,许多公司已经尝试过这种方法,但最终的结果令人失望。虽然一种单一的会议可能比没有好,但审核的目的被淡化。“记住,”诺兰说,“子进程的评审目的不是只是沟通。主要的目的是作为职能管理会议。”

Nolan tells the group that many of the topics that should be discussed in the demand review meeting are of little use to the supply side. Likewise, much of the discussion at the supply review is of little use to the demand side. It is a potential waste of some of the individuals’ time.

诺兰告诉小组,许多应该讨论的话题在需求评审会议上对于供给方面很少有用。同样的道理,许多的在供应评审会议上的话题对需求方面很少有用。这是一个潜在的对个人时间的浪费。

Another critical reason not to combine the two meetings is the need for the supply side to have the time to analyze the demand request for product. The supply side needs time to determine whether and how it can support the updated demand request.

不要把两个会议放在一起的的另一个关键原因是因为供应方面需要时间来分析产品的需求的要求。供应方需要时间来确定是否以及如何它可以支持更新的需求要求。

“In the absence of facts,” Nolan says, and then he is interrupted by Jim Simpson. “The only answer you can give is yes,” Jim concludes. “The supply side should not be forced to commit to a plan it can’t achieve,” Nolan says. “This often occurs when companies use a single review meeting, and then the supply side is unfairly criticized for poor performance.” Again he is interrupted by Jim. “For not doing what it said it was going to do,” Jim says. Mark and the rest of the group laugh. “Very good, Jim,” Mark says. “I guess you must be learning something.”

“在缺乏事实依据的情况下,”诺兰说,被吉姆中断。“唯一的答案是肯定的,”吉姆的结论。“供应方面不应该被要求承诺不能实现的计划,” 诺兰说。“这常常发生在公司使用一个单一的评审会议, 然后供应方经常受到不公正的批评因为表现不佳。” 他又是被吉姆打断。“没有做它说这是要做的,” 吉姆说。马克和小组其他人笑起来。“很好,吉姆,”马克说。我想你已经学到了很多。”

Jim laughs as well. “Mark, it’s just that every day we do most of what Ross and Nolan say shouldn’t be done.”

吉姆也笑了。“马克,这就是我们每天做的最多的而罗斯和诺兰说不应该做的。”

Nolan does not want to lose momentum. This is an opportunity to point out how the sales and operations planning process should not be conducted.

诺兰不想破坏气氛。这是一个指出销售和运营计划的过程中,不应怎样进行的时机。

“I have seen some companies conduct what they call a pre-sales and operations planning meeting,” he says. He explains that an effective pre-sales and operations planning meeting is usually attended by a cast of twenty or thirty middle managers who represent most of the company functions. The meetings are long and typically degenerate into meaningless exchanges and name-calling. The reason pre-sales and operations planning meetings often fail is that neither demand nor supply is properly prepared. Both sides try to update their plans during the meeting itself, and there is no one with the authority to make a decision.

“我见过一些公司进行他们所谓的售前和运营计划会议,”他说。他解释说,一个有效的售前和运营计划会议通常是由一个二十到三十个中层经理出席,代表公司的大部分功职能。这些会议通常退化为毫无意义的交流和谩骂。售前和运营计划会议经常失败的原因并不是需求和供应都没有准备。而是双方都试图在更新自己的计划,而会议本身没有人有权做出决定。

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